Analyzing landslide susceptibility, health vulnerability and risk using multi-criteria decision-making analysis in Arunachal Pradesh, India

Landslides being a widespread disaster are associated with susceptibility, vulnerability and risk. The physical factors inducing landslides are relatively well-known. However, how landslide susceptibility will be exacerbated by climate change, impede the attainment of the sustainable development goals and increase health vulnerability is relatively less explored. We present an integrated assessment of landslide susceptibility, health vulnerability and overall risk to understand these interconnected dimensions using Arunachal Pradesh, India, as a case study, which is susceptible to landslides due to its topography and climate conditions. Landslide susceptibility was examined using twenty landslide conditioning parameters through the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP). The susceptibility map was validated using the area under the ROC curve (AUC). National Family Health Survey (NFHS 4) data were used to analyze the health vulnerability, while the overall risk was computed through the integration of susceptibility and vulnerability. Landslide susceptibility analysis indicated that nearly 22% area of the state is characterized by moderate susceptibility followed by high (17%) and very high susceptibility (13%). High elevation, slope, rainfall, SPI, drainage density and complex geology were identified as the causative factors of landslides. In the case of health vulnerability, East Kameng and Lohit districts were found to be very highly vulnerable, while Papum Pare, Changlang and Tirap districts experience high health vulnerability due to high degree of exposure and sensitivity. Overall risk analysis revealed over 16.8% area of the state is under moderate risk followed by high (9.8%) and very high (4.2%) risk. Linking this analysis with the climate change projections and SDG goals attainment revealed that Papum Pare, Upper Subansiri, Tirap and West Kameng require priority for lessening susceptibility, vulnerability and risk for achieving sustainable development. A strong correlation (99%) between HVI and risk further demonstrates the need for lessening health vulnerability and risk in the study area. Furthermore, our study contributes additional insights into landslide susceptibility by considering heal vulnerability and risk which may help in planning sustainable development strategies in a changing climate.