Baseline retinal nerve fiber layer thickness as a predictor of multiple sclerosis progression: New insights from the FREEDOMS II study

Background and purpose The aim was to evaluate the potential of retinal nerve fiber layer thickness (RNFLT) measured with optical coherence tomography in predicting disease progression in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). Methods Analyses were conducted post hoc of this 24-month, phase III, double-blind study, in which RRMS patients were randomized (1:1:1) to once daily oral fingolimod 0.5 mg, 1.25 mg or placebo. The key outcomes were the association between baseline RNFLT and baseline clinical characteristics and clinical/imaging outcomes up to 24 months. Change of RNFLT with fingolimod versus placebo within 24 months and time to retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thinning were evaluated. Results Altogether 885 patients were included. At baseline, lower RNFLT was correlated with higher Expanded Disability Status Scale score (r = -1.085, p = 0.018), lower brain volume (r = 0.025, p = 0.006) and deep gray matter volume (r = 0.731, p < 0.0001), worse visual acuity (r = -19.846, p < 0.0001) and longer duration since diagnosis (r = -0.258, p = 0.018). At month 12, low baseline RNFLT (<86 mu m) versus high baseline RNFLT (>= 99 mu m) was associated with a greater brain volume loss (percentage change -0.605% vs. -0.315%, p = 0.035) in patients without optic neuritis history. At month 24, low baseline RNFLT versus high baseline RNFLT was associated with a higher number of new or newly enlarged T2 lesions (mean number 4.0 vs. 2.8, p = 0.014) and a higher risk of subsequent RNFL thinning (hazard ratio 2.55; 95% confidence interval 1.84-3.53; p < 0.001). The atrophy of the RNFL in the inferior quadrant was alleviated with fingolimod 0.5 mg versus placebo at month 24 (Delta(least squares mean) = 1.8, p = 0.047). Conclusion Retinal nerve fiber layer thickness could predict disease progression in RRMS. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT00355134, .