Land-Use Pattern Evaluation Using GeoSOS-FLUS in National Territory Spatial Planning: A Case Study of Changzhi City, Shanxi Province

Land-use patterns have always been affected by urban development, and their structural optimization is of great significance to high-quality urban development. However, since the establishment of the spatial planning system, there are still a lack of methods for optimizing the land-use structure. To this end, the research proposes an analysis framework, and proposes the direction of land-use structure adjustment through the status analysis, potential evaluation, and LUCC simulation model, and provides a new idea and method of spatial planning. The research uses an analytical framework to analyze the case of Changzhi City, Shanxi Province, puts forward the problems existing in the process of its land use, and further proposes the direction and focus of the adjustment of the land-use structure. Results show that the spatial distribution of land in Changzhi City presents a “forest-farm-forest” characteristic, and forest land, farmland and grassland account for 85% of its total area. From 2010 to 2018, the grassland area in Changzhi City decreased the most to 3486.13 hm2, and the comprehensive degree of land use increased from 235.88% to 236.73%; however, the cultivated land showed a downward trend. The construction land intensive utilization of Changzhi City is low, and the potential for rural construction land consolidation is high. In addition, the conversion probability of cultivated land in the Tunliu district and the conversion probability of construction land close to Luzhou district are relatively higher, which can be used as crucial areas for the future development of Changzhi City. In the process of urban development, cultivated land protection and construction land demand should be balanced.