Whole fresh fruit intake and risk of incident diabetes in different glycemic stages: a nationwide prospective cohort investigation

Purpose Fruit intake is beneficial to several chronic diseases, but controversial in diabetes. We aimed to investigate prospectively the associations of whole fresh fruit intake with risk of incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) in subjects with different glucose regulation capacities. Methods The present study included 79,922 non-diabetic participants aged ≥ 40 years from an ongoing nationwide prospective cohort in China. Baseline fruit intake information was collected by a validated food frequency questionnaire. Plasma HbA1c, fasting and 2 h post-loading glucose levels were measured at both baseline and follow-up examinations. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for incident diabetes among participants with normal glucose tolerance (NGT) and prediabetes, after adjusted for multiple confounders. Restricted cubic spline analysis was applied for dose–response relation. Results During a median 3.8-year follow-up, 5886 (7.36%) participants developed diabetes. Overall, we identified a linear and dose-dependent inverse association between dietary whole fresh fruit intake and risk of incident T2D. Each 100 g/d higher fruit intake was associated with 2.8% lower risk of diabetes (HR 0.972, 95%CI [0.949–0.996], P = 0.0217), majorly benefiting NGT subjects with 15.2% lower risk (HR 0.848, 95%CI [0.766–0.940], P = 0.0017), while not significant in prediabetes (HR 0.981, 95%CI 0.957–4.005, P = 0.1268). Similarly, the inverse association was present in normoglycemia individuals with a 48.6% lower risk of diabetes when consuming fruits > 7 times/week comparing to those < 1 time/week (HR 0.514, 95% CI [0.368–0.948]), but not in prediabetes (HR 0.883, 95% CI [0.762–1.023]). Conclusion These findings suggest that higher frequency and amount of fresh fruit intake may protect against incident T2D, especially in NGT, but not in prediabetes, highlighting the dietary recommendation of higher fresh fruit consumption to prevent T2D in normoglycemia population.