Household Structure Projection: A Monte-Carlo based Approach
PROCEEDINGS OF THE 12TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON SIMULATION AND MODELING METHODOLOGIES, TECHNOLOGIES AND APPLICATIONS (SIMULTECH)(2022)
摘要
The kernel of an agent based simulation system for spreading of infectious disease needs a so called household structure (HSD) of the area being simulated which contains a list of households with the age of each member in the household being recorded. Such a household structure is available in a Census that is usually released every 10 years. Previous researches have shown the changing of the household structure has a great impact on disease spreading patterns. It is observed that the changing of the household structure e.g., the average citizen ages and household size, is at a faster speed. However, serious infectious diseases, such as SARS (year 2002), H1N1 (year 2009) and COVID-19 (year 2019), occur with a higher frequency now than previous eras. For example, it would be bad to use HSD2010 built using Census 2010 to simulate COVID-19. In view of this situation, we need a better way to obtain a good household structure in between the Census years in order for an agent-based simulation system to be effective. Note that though a detailed Census is not available every year, aggregated information such as the number of households with a particular size, and the number of people of a particular age are usually available almost monthly. Given HSDx, the household structure for year x, and the aggregated information from year y where y > x, we propose a Monte-Carlo based approach "patching" HSDx to get an approximated HSDy. To validate our algorithm, we pick x and y - x + 10 which both Censuses are available and find out the root-mean-square error (RMSE) between Census's HSDy and generated HSDy is fairly small for x = 1990 and 2000. The spreading patterns obtained by our simulation system have good matches. We hence obtain HSD2020 to be used in your system for studying the spreading of COVID-19.
更多查看译文
关键词
Household Structure Projection,Monte-Carlo,Agent-based Simulation.
AI 理解论文
溯源树
样例
![](https://originalfileserver.aminer.cn/sys/aminer/pubs/mrt_preview.jpeg)
生成溯源树,研究论文发展脉络
Chat Paper
正在生成论文摘要