Boundary-Layer Processes Hindering Contemporary Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Time integration of the unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (URANS) equations is the principal approach used in numerical weather prediction. This approach represents a balanced compromise between accuracy and computational cost. The URANS equations require the flow to be decomposed into an ensemble mean and excursions that are presumed to be entirely related to turbulence, thereby enabling conventional closure schemes to be used to describe their statistics. Implicit in such a decomposition is the assumption of a spectral gap between the unsteadiness in the mean flow and the scales of turbulence. Modelling challenges arise when some of the unresolved fluctuations are related to non-turbulent, structured motions that can also blur the spectral gap and render conventional closure schemes ineffective. This work seeks to clarify modelling issues that occur when unresolved fluctuations include submesoscale motions and persistent secondary circulations related to surface heterogeneities. Because submeso motions and persistent secondary circulations are not random, new theoretical tactics are discussed to represent their effects on URANS transport. By reviewing the interpretation of fluctuating terms in the URANS equations, we suggest the use of large-eddy simulations, direct numerical simulations and field measurements to guide the development of closure schemes that explicitly include fluxes due to submeso motions and persistent secondary circulations.