Can species distribution models be used for risk assessment analyses of fungal plant pathogens? A case study with three Botryosphaeriaceae species

Fungal species of the family Botryosphaeriaceae are distributed worldwide and are known important pathogens of a wide variety of forestry and agricultural plant hosts. The role of global changes impacts, especially climate change, on Botryosphaeriaceae-related diseases is still poorly understood. We mapped suitable areas for three Botryosphaeriaceae species, according to three different Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) 126, 370 and 585 in different time slots: a historical climate series from 1970 to 2000 and two future projections 2021–2040 and 2081–2100. An overall increase of suitable areas for these pathogens is predicted in most of the studied scenarios. Also a possible range expansion is predicted in the northern hemisphere for Botryosphaeria dothidea and Neofusicoccum parvum . A consistent increase in the number of month with optimal growth conditions was found in most of the north hemisphere. This increase could impact on the phenology of these organisms and result in more frequent and intensive outbreaks. In this study, we explored the advantages and limitations of species distribution models, SDMs, to provide input data for Botryosphaeriaceae-related risk assessment and to improve our understanding of the ecological niche requirements of these species. A worldwide risk assessment was performed to categorise different risk levels based on current and future suitability of geographical areas to these organisms. The ability to predict plant pathogen occurrence in space and time with species distribution models at local or global scale can help decision-makers to develop management strategies to prevent or minimize the impact of future disease outbreaks.