Modelling and analysis e-SIM in Indonesia

Group Special Mobile Association (GSMA) has set a new standard related to embedded Subscriber Identity Module (e-SIM) technology. The application of these technologies aim to support the needs of new services such as Machine to Machine (M2M) and Internet of Things (IoT). Currently several smart phone manufacturers such as Apple and Samsung start to implement the technology to their products. Provisioning of cellular services in Indonesia are not evenly distributed, both the scope and quality of its network and the difficulty when customers switch services. Based on the potential benefit of e-SIM, we investigate implementation e-SIM in terms of the number of subscriber, Average Revenue per User (ARPU), and cost production. We forecast the number of subscriber using S-curve model, while ARPU and cost production using Quadratic models. We show there are only 19 million new subscribers between 2015-2020 if Indonesia do not implement e-SIM. However, the new subscribers are being double if Indonesia implement e-SIM in the same period. Moreover, ARPU are estimated being large as Indonesia implement e-SIM because e-SIM enables IoT devices.