Employing machine learning to quantify long-term climatological and regulatory impacts on groundwater availability in intensively irrigated regions

•Groundwater withdrawal potential is introduced as a new surrogate for pumping.•The ML model captures the impacts of aquifer depletion and well retirement policies.•Climate shifts depletion time frame by less than 15 years in most of the study area.•Well retirement policies do not lead to sustainable groundwater savings.•Drier climate conditions hamper the efficacy of well retirement policies.