Effect of Vegetation Carryover and Climate Variability on the Seasonal Growth of Vegetation in the Upper and Middle Reaches of the Yellow River Basin

Vegetation dynamics are often affected by climate variability, but the past state of vegetation has a non-negligible impact on current vegetation growth. However, seasonal differences in the effects of these drivers on vegetation growth remain unclear, particularly in ecologically fragile areas. We used the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), gross primary productivity (GPP), and leaf area index (LAI) to describe the vegetation dynamic in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River basin (YRB). Three active vegetation growing seasons (early, peak, and late) were defined based on phenological metrics. In light of three vegetation indicators and the climatic data, we identified the correlation between the inter-annual variation of vegetation growth in the three sub-seasons. Then, we quantified the contributions of climate variability and the vegetation growth carryover (VGC) effect on seasonal vegetation greening between 2000-2019. Results showed that both the vegetation coverage and productivity in the study area increased over a 20-year period. The VGC effect dominated vegetation growth during the three active growing seasons, and the effect increased from early to late growing season. Vegetation in drought regions was found to generally have a stronger vegetation carryover ability, implying that negative disturbances might have severer effects on vegetation in these areas. The concurrent seasonal precipitation was another positive driving factor of vegetation greening. However, sunshine duration, including its immediate and lagged impacts, had a negative effect on vegetation growth. In addition, the VGC effect can sustain into the second year. The VGC effect showed that initial ecological restoration and sustainable conservation would promote vegetation growth and increase vegetation productivity. This study provides a comprehensive perspective on understanding the climate-vegetation interactions on a seasonal scale, which helps to accurately predict future vegetation dynamics over time in ecologically fragile areas.