Long-Term Survival After Surgery Versus Ablation for Early Liver Cancer in a Large, Nationally Representative Cohort

Objective To compare survival outcomes (all-cause, cancer-specific, and disease-free) for small hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs), less than or equal to 5 cm, after ablation (AB) and surgical resection (SR) after adjusting for key confounders. Secondarily, to understand differential survival outcomes of liver transplant (TR) compared with SR and AB. Methods Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program–Medicare, HCCs less than 5 cm that were treated with AB, SR, or TR in 2009 to 2016 (n = 1,215) were identified using Healthcare Common Procedure Coding System codes through Medicare claims. The TR group was subdivided into two groups: TR with prior treatment and TR without prior treatment. All-cause survival, cancer-specific survival, and disease-free survival were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier curves and compared between groups using log-rank tests and Cox regression analyses. Propensity score-matched comparison of AB and SR groups was performed, with groups matched on demographics, social determinants of health, medical comorbidities, and liver disease severity prognostic indicators. Results Median study follow-up time was 2.71 years (interquartile range 1.25-3.83). Unadjusted 1-, 3-, and 5-year cancer-specific survivals were 85.9%, 67.6%, and 56.3% for the AB group; 91.7%, 82.6%, and 81.7% for the SR group; 93.5%, 88.7%, and 79.4% for TR without prior treatment group; and 96.4%, 93.2%, and 93.2% for TR with prior treatment group (P < .0001). With SR as the reference group, the propensity-matched hazard ratios for AB were 2.04 (95% confidence interval: 1.51-2.77) for all-cause mortality, 2.44 (95% confidence interval: 1.56-3.80) for cancer-specific mortality, and 2.12 (95% confidence interval: 1.61-2.78) for disease recurrence. Discussion SR is superior to AB for small HCCs in a large, nationally representative, modern cohort, and in secondary analysis TR was superior to both.