Effect of the Asian monsoon on the northward migration of the brown planthopper to northern South China

As wind-borne migration of insects is strongly influenced by atmospheric circulation and weather systems, the relationships between insect population abundance and meteorological conditions are substantial. The brown planthopper (BPH), Nilaparvata lugens (Stal), is one of the major wind-borne insects hampering rice production in Asia, and its migration is significantly influenced by the Asian monsoon, a main component of the Asian climate system. However, the degree and mechanisms of the effects of monsoon on BPH migration have been little studied. In this paper, the effect of the Asian monsoon on the northward migration of BPH from the Indochina Peninsula to northern South China (NSC) was investigated based on the BPH light-trap data and meteorological data for 39 years. The results show that the level of BPH migration in May could indicate the degree of annual pest outbreaks in NSC and that the southeast monsoon was more critical in this northward migration than the previously recognized southwest monsoon. The significance of the southeast monsoon stemmed from the strong effect of South China Sea subtropical high on BPH migration under a unique weather system distribution, the Polar low-Continental low-West Pacific subtropical high pattern. Furthermore, based on the key areas of migration obtained from the composite analysis, the multivariable linear regression prediction model could effectively predict the occurrence of BPH in NSC. These results indicate the importance of interactions between monsoons during BPH northward migration, which reflects the complex relationship between BPH migration and atmospheric motion.