A Probabilistic Graph Model Based Operation Optimization Method During Disaster for a Multienergy System

This paper investigates methods for optimal operation of multi-energy systems to withstand extreme hazards under extreme disasters. Firstly, the paper establishes a toughness evaluation index for multi-energy systems from the definition of resilience, which comprehensively portrays the system's ability to face disasters by considering the frequency of damage to each device in the system, the magnitude of load loss caused by failure and the time element of the disaster. Subsequently, this paper gives a toughness assessment process for the system based on probabilistic graph model. The approach explores a distinctly different intuitive and effective approach to toughness assessment in terms of the infrastructure topology of the system. Finally, we propose a specific process for toughness enhancing of the system using the toughness assessment method, verifies the correctness of the proposed toughness assessment index and the effectiveness of the enhancing measures by testing results.