Catching the hydrogen train: economics-driven green hydrogen adoption potential in the United Arab Emirates

The establishment of a hydrogen economy for domestic use and energy exports is increasingly attractive to fossil fuel exporting countries. This paper quantifies the potential of green hydrogen in the United Arab Emirates, using an integrated adoption model based on global technoeconomic trends and local costs. We consider the impact of varying hydrogen, oil, natural gas, and carbon prices on the economics of green H2 adoption. In our Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, we observe economic viability in UAE industries between 2032 and 2038 at H2 prices between $0.95/kg and $1.35/kg based on electrolyzer cost assumptions, solar forecasts and learning rates. We also note rapid scale-up to large export-oriented production capacities across our scenarios. However, if cost reductions slow or gas prices return to historical lows, additional interventions such as carbon pricing would be required to fully decarbonize in alignment with the 2050 net-zero target.