Impact of spatio-temporal land surface temperature on cropping pattern and land use and land cover changes using satellite imagery, Hafizabad District, Punjab, Province of Pakistan

Climate change is a growing threat to the agricultural sector. Land surface temperature (LST), as an essential variable in the earth’s climate system, describes processes such as the exchange of energy and water between the earth’s surface and the atmosphere and affects the speed and time of vegetation growth. This study uses satellite images to evaluate the changing trends of climate variables and LST and their effects on cropping patterns in Hafizabad, Punjab. Two leading rice and wheat crops were analyzed from Landsat time series data for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2018. Through spatial analysis and Iterative Self-Organizing (ISO) data analysis, Landsat satellite images were used for generating LST from 1990 to 2018. After image processing, crops were identified using ISO-data clustering, and crop change trends were calculated at time extension intervals of every 3 years (1989–2019). Regression and correlation analysis were used to assess the effect of LST on crop growth. The image classification reflects an increase in the built-up area from 147.65 to 312.83 km 2 and a decline in green space from 187.12 to 21.70 km 2 . The mean annual LST values were 19.98°C, 24.55°C, 26.22°C, and 31.68°C for the years 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2018. The experimental results show that our technical solution of remote sensing and statistical analysis effectively monitors the impact of climate change on cropping patterns. The study results were beneficial, especially at the decision-making level for local government and for understanding the global scenario for regional planning.