Uncertainties in Prediction of Near-Fault Long-Period Ground Motion: An Application to the 1970 Tonghai Earthquake (Ms 7.8)

The geological activity in Sichuan and Yunnan of China is intense, and large earthquakes such as the Tonghai earthquake in 1970 have caused huge casualties and economic losses. Therefore, it is significant to reduce the long-period earthquake damage of dams and high-rise buildings to reproduce the near-fault long-period ground motion characteristics of the Tonghai earthquake. In this paper, the finite difference method is used to predict the long-period characteristics of the Tonghai Ms 7.8 earthquake. Considering the uncertainty of the initial fracture point, number of asperities, and slip angle, 18 seismic scenarios are established. The predicted results are verified by comparing intensity, attenuation relation and pulse probability distribution. At the same time, based on the velocity pulse recognition method, the pulse probability distribution of the near-field is obtained. We selected six seismic scenarios with high probability from 18 seismic scenarios. Our results show that the spatial distribution and pulse probability distribution of near-field simulated ground motion is significantly affected by the initial rupture positions. After the characteristics of the largest asperity on the fault are determined, the remaining asperities have limited influence on the spatial distribution of simulated ground motion. This study expands the application scope of the finite difference method, which can simulate the seismic intensity characteristics of destructive earthquakes in areas with few seismic records.