Prediction and scenario simulation of the carbon emissions of public buildings in the operation stage based on an energy audit in Xi'an, China

The carbon emissions (CEs) of public buildings (PBs) in the operation stage significantly impact building life cycle assessments (LCA). Energy conservation and carbon reduction during this stage is necessary for China to achieve peak CEs and neutralization. Energy consumption and CEs are analyzed using energy audit data for PBs in Xi'an. CEs of PBs in the operation stage are calculated by our prediction method with an average deviation of only 4.41%. Using the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method to analyze factors influencing CEs, we find that economic development levels impact CEs the most in the operation stage; the impact coefficient reaches 3.81. This study discusses the contribution of various driving factors of CEs via the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) method and simulates seven scenarios to predict change trends of the CEs of PBs in the operation stage. The rough development scenario fails to achieve the peak, the comprehensive optimization development scenario achieves the peak in 2040, and the remaining scenarios achieve the peak in 2050. The results provide practical and theoretical support for CE research and a scientific basis for predicting the CEs of PBs in the operation stage throughout China and worldwide.