[Multi-state Markov model analysis of disease outcomes and influencing factors in HIV infected individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy in Luzhou of Sichuan province, 2010-2021].

To construct a multi-state Markov model and analyze the disease outcomes and its influencing factors in HIV infected individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy. A retrospective cohort analysis was conducted in HIV infected individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy in Luzhou of Sichuan province from 2010 to 2021. The disease status was divided into CD4T lymphocytes (CD4) counts >500 cells/μl, 350-500 cells/μl, 200-349 cells/μl, ≤199 cells/μl and death indicated by S1-S5 in turn. A reversible continuous-time discrete-state multi-state Markov model was constructed for the analysis of disease progression features. A total of 7 542 HIV infected individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy were included, and the median age (, ) was 53.4 (41.2, 64.5) years old. The transition intensity of S3→S2 was higher. During follow-up, the transition probability of S4→S5 increased gradually. Influencing factors analysis of disease outcomes in HIV infected individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy showed that compared with individuals 15-24 years old, the transition intensities of S2→S1, S3→S2 and S4→S3 were lower and the transition intensity of S3→S4 was higher in individuals ≥45 years old. Compared with single individuals, the transition intensities of S3→S2 and S4→S3 were higher and the transition intensities of S3→S4 and S4→S5 were lower in married individuals. The transition intensity of S1→S2 was higher in individuals with baseline CD4 counts ≤500 cells/μl than in individuals with baseline CD4 counts >500 cells/μl. The transition intensity of S3→S4 in individuals diagnosed during 2011-2015 was lower than that in individuals diagnosed in 2010 and before. HIV infected individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy tended to shift to the previous disease status, suggesting that antiretroviral therapy was conducive to immune reconstitution. Older age (≥45 years old), being married, low baseline CD4 counts and being diagnosed in 2010 and before were the risk factors for disease progression.