Stochastic bioeconomic analysis of intensive African Catfish cultivation with three sources of uncertainty

This study aims at the development of a bioeconomic model that incorporates three different sources of stochasticity occurring simultaneously in the intensive rearing system of African catfish (Clarias gariepinus). The bioeconomic model was constructed with experimental data from a 4-month feeding trial with juveniles of the African catfish in the recirculating aquaculture system, by adjusting the equations that replicate the behaviour of the variables in the system according to the observed data. Survival, individual growth, and feed consumption were the variables identified to display random pattern. The model was validated and used to perform a series of simulations based on specific assumptions to provide meaningful information for the decision-making process about the system. Monte Carlo technique was used to determine the posterior probability to reach bioeconomic reference points. The target reference point was to make a profit of USD 979, in no more than 204 days with 97% fish of 1000 g or higher for a harvest of 776 kg wet weight.