Holiday travel intention in a crisis scenario: a comparative analysis of Spain's main source markets

Purpose This study proposes an extension of the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) model to understand international travellers' intentions to visit Spain. This study aims to compare whether the predictive variables of the intention to travel differ depending on nationality. The extension includes: perceived risk, loyalty to the destination, past travel experience, public opinion climate and electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM). Design/methodology/approach A multiple-indicator, multiple-cause (MIMIC) model was developed as a structural equational model to predict the 1,978 participants' intention to travel. The structural model was used to determine the theoretical model for the total sample and by nationality (Germans, Britons and those from other European countries). Findings The extended models fitted the data well, explaining 64%-68% of the total variance, while differences depending on tourist nationality were also found. The MIMIC model indicated that German people's intention to travel to a holiday destination was influenced by their perception of risk, eWOM and loyalty to the country. In the British group, only the TPB variables were relevant. For those of other European nationalities, loyalty and eWOM were also significant. Travel experience, used as a variable in previous studies, was shown not to be significant. Overall, these results offer insights into how people from diverse countries and cultures embrace the aforementioned constructs when making travel decisions. Practical implications This study also has practical implications for policymakers in holiday tourism destinations, such as Spain. In particular, this study provides a better understanding of Britons' and Germans' travel intentions and could be beneficial for guiding policies for the recovery of the tourism industry in major tourism destinations. Originality/value Previous studies have applied various extended TPBs to one specific country or made comparisons between Asian countries. This study's proposal makes a comparison of the variables used to predict the intention to visit a holiday destination among the European countries.