Evidence for a critical leopard conservation stronghold from a large protected landscape on the island of Sri Lanka

The decline and extirpation of large carnivore populations can lead to cascading effects in natural ecosystems. An understanding of large carnivore population densities, distribution and dynamics is therefore critical for developing effective conservation strategies across landscapes. This is particularly important in island environments where species face increased extinction risk due to genetic isolation coupled with local losses of finite habitat. The Sri Lankan leopard Panthera pardus kotiya is one of two remaining island-living leopards on Earth and the only apex predator in Sri Lanka. Despite its iconic status in Sri Lanka, robust research on the species has been limited to only a handful of scientific studies, limiting meaningful scientific recommendations for the species’ conservation and management. In this study, we conducted a single season camera trap survey in Sri Lanka’s largest protected area, Wilpattu National Park (1317 km2), located in the country’s northwest. Our objective was to estimate key ecological state variables of interest (density, abundance, sex-specific movement and spatial distribution) of this leopard subspecies. Our results indicate that Wilpattu National Park supports a density of 18 individuals/100 km2 (posterior SD=1.5; 95% HPD interval=16–21) with a mean abundance of 144 (posterior SD=15) individual leopards and a healthy sex ratio (f:m=2.03:1). The estimated activity range for male leopards > 2 years old was 49.53 km2 (Posterior SD=3.43; HPD interval=43.09–56.41) and for female leopards > 2 years old was 22.04 km2 (Posterior SD=1.82; HPD interval=18.34–25.65). This density falls at the higher end of published estimates for the species anywhere in its global range, based on similar methods. Given Sri Lanka’s limited size, this national park system should be considered as a critical stronghold that maintains a source population of leopards, contributing to the long-term population viability of leopards in the larger landscape.