Mysterious ciliates: seasonally recurrent and yet hard to predict

Ciliates represent a crucial link between phytoplankton and bacteria and mesozooplankton in pelagic food webs, but little is known about the processes influencing the dynamics of individual species. Using long-term, high-frequency observations, we compared the diversity and the temporal variability in biomass and species composition of the ciliate community in large, deep, mesotrophic Lake Constance to that of the phytoplankton and rotifer communities in the same lake. Furthermore, we used boosted regression trees to evaluate possible environmental predictors (temperature, three prey groups, four predator/competitor groups) influencing ciliate net growth. The biomass of all ciliate species showed a common, recurrent seasonal pattern, often with peaks in spring and summer. The ciliate community was more diverse than the rotifer community, exhibited highly synchronous dynamics and its species were regularly encountered during the season. The top-down control by copepods likely contributes to the ciliates' synchronized decline prior to the clear-water phase when food concentration is still high. The high temporal autocorrelation of the ciliate biomasses together with the inter-annual recurrent seasonal patterns and the low explanatory power of the environmental predictors suggest that the dynamics of individual ciliate species are strictly controlled, yet it remains difficult to determine the responsible factors.