Understanding the Necessity and Economic Benefits of Lockdown Measures to Contain COVID-19
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMPUTATIONAL SOCIAL SYSTEMS(2023)
Abstract
Since the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the issue of how to maintain economic development while containing the epidemic has become a significant concern for decision-makers. Though lockdown measures are verified to be very effective in containing the epidemic, its economic costs and other influences have not been fully explored. As a result, decision-makers in many countries are still hesitant to include the lockdown measure in an intervention strategy in response to COVID-19. To address this issue, we propose a universal computational experiment approach for policy evaluation and adjustment based on the Artificial societies, Computational experiments, Parallel execution (ACP) concept. First, we innovatively construct a model via observable CO2 emissions, which is able to estimate the economic costs affected by nonpharmaceutical interventions. Furthermore, based on the population movement data, a risk source model is proposed to estimate the local transmission risk for any prefectures outside the epicenter. Finally, we integrate the data models in a high-resolution agent-based artificial society and carry out large-scale computational experiments supported by the Tianhe supercomputer. Policy adjustments and evaluations are carried out in four cities: Wenzhou, Guangzhou, Beijing, and Wuhan. Our research findings show important implications for policy-making: 1) the local transmission of a city can be almost contained if lockdowns are adopted immediately when the risk index is larger than 1.645, 1.960, or 2.576 at the 90%, 95%, or 99% confidence interval, respectively; 2) if lockdowns are required, in-advance lockdown measures facilitate mitigation efficacy and reduce economic loss; and 3) lockdowns lasting for 7-14 days in a prefecture would be effective in controlling the spread of the epidemic. The duration of the measure should be prolonged with the increment of the initial transmission risk.
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Key words
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), high-resolution agent-based artificial society, lockdown measures, policy-making, risk source model
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