The 3-year progression of clinically significant psychotic-like experiences in a general adult population in Lagos, Nigeria

Purpose The study assessed the 3-year progression of clinically significant psychotic-like experience (CS-PLE) symptoms in an adult general population in terms of stability or remission of symptoms and transition to psychosis. Methods Participants ( n = 1292) aged 18–65 years with CS-PLE were assessed at baseline for sociodemographic details, family history of mental illness, functioning status, common mental disorders, alcohol, and substance use disorders. Three years later they were reassessed for diagnosis of psychosis, presence or remission of PLE symptoms, and contact with mental health services. Results The mean age of the participants at baseline in years was 36.56 (SD = 11.66) and there were 855 (66.2%) females. By the 3rd year follow-up, 95 (7.3%) had transited to psychosis, while 850 (65.5%) had persistent CS-PLE symptoms and the rest 347 (27.2%) were in remission. Only history of mental illness in the immediate family (HR 4.81, 95% CI 1.40–16.47, P = 0.013) and regular use of cannabis at less than 18 years of age (HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.55–0.77, P < 0.001) were the independent predictors of conversion to psychosis at 3 years. Conclusion The rate of TTP in the non-clinical population with elevated risk may be lower than that earlier reported in the western literature. Interventions aimed at preventing transition to psychosis in high risk groups must pay attention to early onset users of cannabis and those with family history of mental illness.