Prediction model for in-hospital mortality of patients with heart failure based on optuna and light gradient boosting machine

Background and objective: Heart failure (HF) is a lethal public health problem in the field of cardiovascular diseases with high incidence, rehospitalization, and mortality rates. Therefore, the prediction of in-hospital mortality of patients with HF is of paramount significance in providing clinical information to doctors. To improve the accuracy of prediction, this study constructed a prediction model for in-hospital mortality of patients with HF based on machine learning algorithms. Methods: We obtained the medical data of 1901 patients with HF from a public database and performed preprocessing to extract 19 variables as inputs of the prediction model. A prediction model was constructed based on the light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) and its performance was improved using the Optuna framework to optimize the LightGBM hyperparameters. To evaluate the proposed algorithm, five machine learning algorithms widely used in the field of biomedicine were selected for comparison: support vector machine, classification and regression tree, random forests, gradient boosting decision tree, and LightGBM. Further, we explained the proposed model based on Deep SHapley Additive exPlanations. We also quantified the importance of each variable and analyzed its correlation with the results. Results: The accuracy rate of Optuna-LightGBM was 92 +/- 1.44%, the precision rate was 83.71 +/- 8.34%, the recall rate was 69.46 +/- 11.18%, the F-measure was 74.81 +/- 6.55%, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 83.14 +/- 5%. The results show that this model outperformed other models on all evaluation indicators. Conclusions: The proposed method can be used to construct a prediction model for in-hospital mortality of patients with HF. Optuna-LightGBM can assist clinicians to quickly classify the high-risk patients with HF so that the clinicians can provide timely care and optimize hospital resources.