Estimated pulse wave velocity can predict the incidence of new-onset atrial fibrillation: A 11-year prospective study in a Chinese population

Background: Arterial stiffness, a risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF), is rarely applied in clinical practice because of the difficulty and high cost of its measurement. Estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV) is a simple, reproducible, and non-invasive index of arterial stiffness. This study was to assess the predictive value of ePWV for the risk of new-onset AF. Methods: Subjects were selected from the Kailuan cohort study population who underwent initial physical examination between 2006 and 2008. A total of 96,561 subjects were ultimately included in the final analysis. ePWV was divided into four groups according to quartiles. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the cumulative incidence of AF. A Cox regression model was used to assess the predictive value of estimated arterial stiffness for new-onset AF. Results: ean age of subjects was 51.47 & PLUSMN; 9.68 years, while 76,968 (79.65%) were male and 19,663 (20.35%) were female. During mean follow-up period of 11.77 years, 1,215 AF events occurred. Results of the Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the incidence of new-onset AF increased with increase in ePWV. Cox regression analysis showed that in the total population, the incidence of new-onset AF was 1.64, 1.90, and 2.64 times higher in the medium, medium-high, and high ePWV groups, respectively, compared with the low ePWV group. When stratified according to sex, ePWV had higher predictive value in the female population. Conclusions: Increased ePWV increases the incidence of new-onset AF, and may promote application of more aggressive primary prevention. Trial registry name: Risk factors and intervention for cardiology, cerebrovascular and related disease (Kailuan Study); URL: ; Registration number: ChiCTR-TNRC-11001489.