Effects of complex environment on soil thermal regime alteration under crushed-rock embankment structures in the permafrost region on the Roof of the World

The thermal stability of permafrost under complex environment (climate scenarios, permafrost types and regional air temperatures) directly affects the long-term service performance of highway or railway. This study uses a large amount of valuable soil temperature monitoring and simulation data to examine the stability of typical crushed-rock embankments (CREs) along Qinghai-Tibet Railway, which is located in the permafrost re-gion on the Roof of the World. Firstly, a novel numerical model for CREs considering a complex heat transfer environment is established and verified. Then, alteration characteristics of recent-term thermal regime of permafrost across time and space under three CREs are revealed based on a decade of field monitoring data. Finally, long-term thermal regime of permafrost under three CREs under complex environment is analyzed by numerical simulation. Results include: 1) Soil temperature near the ground surface under the three CREs shows a decreasing trend, whereas the overall temperature around the deep permafrost increases over time under a recent climate warming. 2) The warming rate of permafrost under CREs rises with the acceleration of climate scenarios and regional air temperature and the decrease of regional ground temperatures. 3) U-shaped crushed-rock embankment is the most suitable CRE for managing complex environment, especially when the mean annual ground temperature is 0 similar to -1 degrees C or climate scenarios are RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5. 4) Transition from low-temperature permafrost to warm permafrost is a warning signal of permafrost degradation under climate warming. 5) With an increase of permafrost degradation rate (the thawing and warming rates of permafrost), embankment stability becomes worse. These findings will not only serve as a scientific basis for the embankment damage prevention of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, but also provide important technical supports for the successful building of infrastructure in permafrost regions under complex environment.