Spatial analysis of economic predictors of under-five mortality in Nigeria

Abstract Globally, under-five mortality rates declined from 93 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 38 in 2019. Despite the remarkable progress in reducing under-five mortality globally, it is still significantly high in Nigeria with 117 deaths per 1,000 live births, meaning that 1 in 8 children die before the age of 5. The extant literature on the risk factors of under-five mortality in Nigeria have been largely limited to maternal socio-economic characteristics and environmental factors, with little known about the macroeconomic predictors within a spatial context. As a result, this study examines the macroeconomic predictors of under-five mortality in Nigeria. The data were analysed using spatial statistics. Results show that some parts of northern Nigeria are hotspots of under-five mortality. The study also discovers that inflation rate is a risk factor of under-five mortality in southern Nigeria while internally generated revenue is the predictor in the northern region. The study recommends region-specific interventions such as controlling the high rate of inflation and improving internally generated revenue to reduce under-five mortality in the country.