Does a change to an occupation with a lower physical workload reduce the risk of disability pension? A cohort study of employed men and women in Sweden

Objective This study aimed to examine if a change to an occupation with a lower physical workload reduces the risk of all-cause disability pension (DP) and musculoskeletal DP (MDP). Methods The sample comprised 359 453 workers who were registered as living in Sweden in 2005 and aged 44-63 in 2010. Exposure to physical workload was measured from 2005-2010 by linking a mean value from a job exposure matrix to occupational codes. The mean values were then split into quartiles. All included participants had high exposure to physical workload (top quartile) from 2005-2007. A change in physical workload was measured as a change to (i) any lower quartile or (ii) medium-high or low quartiles from 2008-2010. DP cases were taken from register data from 2011-2016. Crude and multivariate Cox proportional-hazards regression models estimated sex-specific hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results Compared to workers with consistently high physical workload, a change to any lower quartile of physical workload was associated with a decreased risk of all-cause DP (men: HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.46-0.77, women: HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.52-0.76) and MDP (men: HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.31-0.89, women: HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.44-0.84). Older workers had the largest decreased risk for MDP. Generally, changing from high to low physical workload was associated with a greater reduced risk of DP than changing from high to medium-high physical workload. Conclusion Changing to an occupation with lower exposure to physical workload was associated with reduced risks of DP and MDP among both sexes.