Tumor fibrosis correlates with the survival of patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma and is predictable using clinicoradiological features

Objectives To evaluate the prognostic value of fibrosis for patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and preoperatively predict fibrosis using clinicoradiological features. Tumor fibrosis plays an important role in the chemoresistance of PDAC. However, the prognostic value of tumor fibrosis remains contradiction and accurate prediction of tumor fibrosis is required. Methods The study included 131 patients with PDAC who underwent first-line surgery. The prognostic value of fibrosis and rounded cutoff fibrosis points for median overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were determined using Cox regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses. Then the whole cohort was randomly divided into training ( n = 88) and validation ( n = 43) sets. Binary logistic regression analysis was performed to select independent risk factors for fibrosis in the training set, and a nomogram was constructed. Nomogram performance was assessed using a calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results Hazard ratios of fibrosis for OS and DFS were 1.121 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.082–1.161) and 1.110 (95% CI: 1.067–1.155). ROC analysis identified 40% as the rounded cutoff fibrosis point for median OS and DFS. Tumor diameter, carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level, and peripancreatic tumor infiltration were independent risk factors; areas under the nomogram curve were 0.810 and 0.804 in the training and validation sets, respectively. The calibration curve indicated good agreement of the nomogram, and DCA demonstrated good clinical usefulness. Conclusions Tumor fibrosis was associated with poor OS and DFS in patients with PDAC. The nomogram incorporating clinicoradiological features was useful for preoperatively predicting tumor fibrosis. Key Points • Tumor fibrosis is correlated with poor prognosis in patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma. • Tumor fibrosis can be categorized according to its association with overall survival and disease-free survival. • A nomogram incorporating carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level, tumor diameter, and peripancreatic tumor infiltration is useful for preoperatively predicting tumor fibrosis.