Prognostic risk stratification based on left ventricular mechanical dyssynchrony in patients at low or intermediate risk of major cardiac events using the J-ACCESS risk model

There have been no reports on prognostic prediction and risk stratification based on stress phase bandwidth (SPBW), or a left ventricular (LV) mechanical dyssynchrony index, in patients with known or suspected stable coronary artery disease (CAD) at low or intermediate risk of major cardiac events (MCEs) using the J-ACCESS risk model. We retrospectively investigated 4,996 consecutive patients with known or suspected CAD who underwent rest 201Tl and stress 99mTc-tetrofosmin electrocardiogram (ECG)-gated single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) and followed up for 3 years to confirm their prognosis. MCE risk over 3 years was estimated using an equation based on that used in the J-ACCESS study. The composite endpoint was the onset of MCEs consisting of cardiac death, non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), and severe heart failure requiring hospitalization. SPBW was calculated by phase analysis with the Heart Risk View-F software and its normal upper limit was set to 38°. Based on the estimated 3-year incidence of MCEs obtained from the J-ACCESS risk model, 4,123 of the 4,996 consecutive patients were classified as low (n = 2,653) or intermediate risk (n = 1,470) and they were analyzed for follow-up. During the follow-up, 153 patients experienced MCEs: cardiac death (n = 38), non-fatal MI (n = 45), and severe heart failure (n = 70). The results of the multivariate analysis showed age, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), stress LV ejection fraction, and stress SPBW to be independent predictors of MCEs. The actual 3-year MCE rate in patients at intermediate risk was significantly higher than in those at low risk (6.7% vs. 2.1%, P < 0.0001). However, the actual 3-year MCE rate in patients with abnormal SPBW (> 38°) was 4.0% and 9.2% in low- and intermediate-risk patients, respectively, which corresponded to intermediate and high risk. Kaplan–Meier analysis also showed significant risk stratification by normal SPBW values for both low- and intermediate-risk patients. LV mechanical dyssynchrony assessed with ECG-gated SPECT MPI is useful for risk stratification of known or suspected stable CAD patients at low or intermediate risk of MCEs and may help identify higher risk patients who could not be identified as being at risk based on J-ACCESS risk assessment.