Do fears of normative commitments influence nominations to senior NATO military positions? The case of Trudeau with Vance

This article uses the Trudeau Government's decision not to nominate General Jonathan Vance to the position of Chair of the Military Committee (CMC) as a basis to examine the extent to which states should fear alliance contributions. The authors examine if the decision could have been based on fears of expected yet "tacit" pressures to accept greater responsibilities and costs within the overall alliance framework. By analyzing "traditional" NATO alliance contribution data from 2002-2020 through six previous CMCs, this research examines whether incumbency in the CMC position is linked to an increase in material contributions to the alliance. The results of the analyses show that there is no direct relation between an alliance member holding the CMC position and increased alliance contributions. Nonetheless, this study contributes to the field of collective defence through an acknowledgement that states may not fear unstated alliance commitments and obligations as much as theoretically understood.