A new analytical model to predict heavy oil production rate in the SAGD process

An analytical model for predicting the oil production rate in the steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) process is presented in this article. The suggested correlation is found based on Butler's original work. It considers the most effective parameters of the process that emphasize the influence of gravity drainage and that are grouped together in the form of the Rayleigh's number. The present model introduces three coefficients (i, j, and k) into the equation, which are determined by minimizing an objective function based on the difference between the six experimental SAGD datasets and the calculated results. The tool chosen for the minimization is the genetic algorithm (GA). After the initial evaluation, the same approach is used for other reservoir characteristics to ensure the robustness of the new equation. Having considered various simulation outcomes with an average error of 8.9% makes this model a credible one for predicting the SAGD production rates. The novelty of the new predictive model lies within its unique approach, making it quite fast and applicable to a wide range of reservoirs with low associated estimation inaccuracies.