On the Influences of Urbanization on the Extreme Rainfall over Zhengzhou on 20 July 2021: A Convection-Permitting Ensemble Modeling Study

This study investigates the influences of urban land cover on the extreme rainfall event over the Zhengzhou city in central China on 20 July 2021 using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a convection-permitting scale [1-km resolution in the innermost domain (d3)]. Two ensembles of simulation (CTRL, NURB), each consisting of 11 members with a multi-layer urban canopy model and various combinations of physics schemes, were conducted using different land cover scenarios: (i) the real urban land cover, (ii) all cities in d3 being replaced with natural land cover. The results suggest that CTRL reasonably reproduces the spatiotemporal evolution of rainstorms and the 24-h rainfall accumulation over the key region, although the maximum hourly rainfall is underestimated and displaced to the west or southwest by most members. The ensemble mean 24-h rainfall accumulation over the key region of heavy rainfall is reduced by 13%, and the maximum hourly rainfall simulated by each member is reduced by 15–70 mm in CTRL relative to NURB. The reduction in the simulated rainfall by urbanization is closely associated with numerous cities/towns to the south, southeast, and east of Zhengzhou. Their heating effects jointly lead to formation of anomalous upward motions in and above the planetary boundary layer (PBL), which exaggerates the PBL drying effect due to reduced evapotranspiration and also enhances the wind stilling effect due to increased surface friction in urban areas. As a result, the lateral inflows of moisture and high- θ e (equivalent potential temperature) air from south and east to Zhengzhou are reduced.