Story points changes in agile iterative development

Story Points (SP) are an effort unit that is used to represent the relative effort of a work item. In Agile software development, SP allows a development team to estimate their delivery capacity and facilitate the sprint planning activities. Although Agile embraces changes, SP changes after the sprint planning may negatively impact the sprint plan. To minimize the impact, there is a need to better understand the SP changes and an automated approach to predict the SP changes. Hence, to better understand the SP changes, we examine the prevalence, accuracy, and impact of information changes on SP changes. Through the analyses based on 19,349 work items spread across seven open-source projects, we find that on average, 10% of the work items have SP changes. These work items typically have SP value increased by 58%-100% relative to the initial SP value when they were assigned to a sprint. We also find that the unchanged SP reflect the development time better than the changed SP. Our qualitative analysis shows that the work items with changed SP often have the information changes relating to updating the scope of work. Our empirical results suggest that SP and the scope of work should be reviewed prior or during sprint planning to achieve a reliable sprint plan. Yet, it could be a tedious task to review all work items in the product (or sprint) backlog. Therefore, we develop a classifier to predict whether a work item will have SP changes after being assigned to a sprint. Our classifier achieves an AUC of 0.69-0.8, which is significantly better than the baselines. Our results suggest that to better manage and prepare for the unreliability in SP estimation, the team can leverage our insights and the classifier during the sprint planning. To facilitate future studies, we provide the replication package and the datasets, which are available online.