Free-living wrist and hip accelerometry forecast cognitive decline among older adults without dementia over 1- or 5-years in two distinct observational cohorts

The prevalence of major neurocognitive disorders is expected to rise over the next 3 decades as the number of adults ≥ 65 years old increases. Noninvasive screening capable of flagging individuals most at risk of subsequent cognitive decline could trigger closer monitoring and preventive strategies. In this study, we used free-living accelerometry data to forecast cognitive decline within 1- or 5-years in older adults without dementia using two cohorts. The first cohort, recruited in the south side of Chicago, wore hip accelerometers for 7 continuous days. The second cohort, nationally recruited, wore wrist accelerometers continuously for 72 h. Separate classifier models forecasted 1-year cognitive decline with over 85% accuracy using hip data and forecasted 5-year cognitive decline with nearly 70% accuracy using wrist data, significant improvements compared to demographics and comorbidities alone. The proposed models are readily translatable to clinical practices serving ageing populations.