Variations on a Pathway to an Early Eocene Climate

The climate of the early Eocene was characterized by much higher temperatures and a smaller equator-to-pole surface temperature gradient than today. Comprehensive climate models have been reasonably successful in simulating that climate in the annual average. However, good simulations of the seasonal variations, and in particular much warmer Arctic winters over land, have proven more difficult. Further, while increased greenhouse gases seems necessary to achieve an Eocene climate, it is unclear whether there is a unique combination of factors that leads to agreement with all available proxies. Here we use a very flexible General Circulation Model to examine the sensitivity of the modeled climate to differences in CO2 concentration, land surface properties, ocean heat transport, and cloud extent and thickness. Even in the absence of ice or changes in cloudiness, increasing the CO2 concentration leads to a polar-amplified surface temperature change because of increased water vapor levels combined with the lack of convection at high latitudes, with the nonlinear dependence of longwave radiation on temperature amplifying the increase in winter over land. Additional low clouds over Arctic land generally decrease summer temperatures and further increase winter temperatures (except at very high CO2 levels). An increase in the land surface heat capacity, plausible given large changes in vegetation, also decreases the Arctic land seasonality. Thus, different combinations of factors-high CO2 levels, changes in low-level clouds, and an increase in land surface heat capacity-can lead to a simulation within the proxy uncertainty range of the majority of proxy data.