Exponential growth bias of infectious diseases: a systematic review protocol (Preprint)

BACKGROUND Humans have fundamental difficulties to grasp the extent of exponential growth, which is fundamental to grasp the extent of a spreading infectious disease. Exponential growth bias is the pervasive tendency to linearize exponential functions when assessing them intuitively. OBJECTIVE This systematic review aims to identify, evaluate and synthesise the findings of empirical studies concerning exponential growth bias of infectious diseases METHODS A systematic review will be conducted using the preferred reporting items for systematic review and meta-analysis protocols (PRISMA-P) 2015 statement. Risk of bias will be assessed using ROBINS-2 and STROBE. Data synthesis will be achieved through a narrative synthesis RESULTS As of February 2022, we included 11 studies, see PRISMA flow diagram, figure 1. This comprises 10 quasi-experimental studies and one cross sectional survey study. Preliminary themes identified are: The presence and effect of EGB of infectious diseases, visual and educational strategies to mitigate EGB of infectious diseases. Data extraction, narrative synthesis and risk of bias assessment will be expected to be due June 2022. CONCLUSIONS This systematic review concludes on limitation of the research and drawing some lines related to how people comprehend and misperceive exponential growth and its’ consequences for mitigating infectious diseases. Furthermore, the study will give recommendations for communication of exponential growth of infectious diseases and suggestion for future research.