Climatic and Physiographic Variables to Evaluate <i>Culex pipiens s.l.</i> Risk and Habitat

Using a geographic information system (GIS), the relations between a georeferenced data set of Culex pipiens s.l. collected in Portugal mainland during seven years (2006-2012) and meteorological and physiographic parameters are evaluated. This work is one of the results of a long-term surveillance program of pernicious insects that act as vectors of various diseases; its focus is on the possibility of prevention that can be achieved with abundance data. The focus on Culex pipiens is justified by its abundance and its competence as a vector for numerous health issues. The cumulative distribution of monthly captures by each meteorological parameter allows to compute thresholds corresponding to mosquito massive presence related to 90% of the captures. Using the weather parameters measured in the network of weather stations across the country, a monthly average of each parameter of interest (temperature, humidity, etc.) is computed and an interpolation of the results is made to produce raster maps corresponding to each month. The previously obtained thresholds are applied to each map, producing spatial masks with the relevant zones for each parameter. The intersection of the various masks for each month shows the most densely populated area of Culex, and the ensemble allows us to observe the evolution of mosquito presence through the critical season, which is from May to October at these latitudes. In parallel, mosquito abundance data are related to physiographic parameters. The relative distribution of female mosquitoes across land cover types in each month allows identifying which classes and seasons are most relevant. Orthometric altitude related to the presence of 90% of the catches shows the limits reached by mosquitoes in each month. The results are applied to the previously obtained climate envelopes, delimiting critical areas where the level of risk of transmission of the pathogens for which Culex pipiens is a competent vector is high and countermeasures should be concentrated, allowing its planning, and targeting on a monthly basis. The described procedure can be used with other relevant vectors in any region of the world, whenever abundance data is available.