Vaccine Mismatches, Viral Circulation, and Clinical Severity Patterns of Influenza B Victoria and Yamagata Infections in Brazil over the Decade 2010-2020: A Statistical and Phylogeny-Trait Analyses

Worldwide, infections by influenza viruses are considered a major public health challenge. In this study, influenza B vaccine mismatches and clinical aspects of Victoria and Yamagata infections in Brazil were assessed. Clinical samples were collected from patients suspected of influenza infection. In addition, sociodemographic, clinical, and epidemiological information were collected by the epidemiological surveillance teams. Influenza B lineages were determined by real-time RT-PCR and/or Sanger sequencing. In addition, putative phylogeny-trait associations were assessed by using the BaTS program after phylogenetic reconstruction by a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method (BEAST software package). Over 2010-2020, B/Victoria and B/Yamagata-like lineages co-circulated in almost all seasonal epidemics, with B/Victoria predominance in most years. Vaccine mismatches between circulating viruses and the trivalent vaccine strains occurred in five of the eleven seasons (45.5%). No significant differences were identified in clinical presentation or disease severity caused by both strains, but subjects infected by B/Victoria-like viruses were significantly younger than their B/Yamagata-like counterparts (16.7 vs. 31.4 years, p < 0.001). This study contributes to a better understanding of the circulation patterns and clinical outcomes of B/Victoria- and B/Yamagata-like lineages in Brazil and advocate for the inclusion of a quadrivalent vaccine in the scope of the Brazilian National Immunization Program.