Projected changes in near-surface wind speed over Iberian Peninsula and associated atmosphere-ocean oscillations. 

<p>Near-surface wind speed has been one of the forgotten parts of the climate system due to poor quality of observational data and the challenges in its homogenization.&#160; During the last two decades the interest in near-surface wind variability and trends has increased and two main phenomena have been found: the first one is termed &#8220;stilling&#8221;, indicating a decline of near-surface wind speed between around 1978 and 2010; the other is related to an interruption in the &#8220;stilling&#8221; since 2000s, known as a &#8220;reversal&#8221; of the wind speed trends at global and regional scales like China, Sweden or Iberian Peninsula, among others. There are uncertainties about the plausible causes of the variability of the near-surface wind speed, but last research pointed to the role played by decadal atmosphere-ocean oscillations. Under this assumption and a climate change context, a new &#8220;stilling&#8221; phase is expected for the 21^st century. In order to advance in the evaluation and attribution of the causes of the &#8220;stilling&#8221; and the &#8220;reversal&#8221; phenomena, the main objective of this study is to analyze projected changes in near-surface wind speed at regional scale, e.g. the Iberian Peninsula. The methodology consists in a comparison between observed wind speed data of the Iberian Peninsula and historical simulations from CMIP6 models, followed by a study of wind speed variability and trends of CMIP6 models under low to high greenhouse gas forcing scenarios in the future. The analyses will focus on quantifying the long-term changes in near surface wind speed and their relationship with dominant modes of variability in the Pacific and Atlantic (e.g., the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation).</p><p>&#160;</p>