Robust optimal identification and scheduling of modernization measures for typical buildings

Optimization approaches for the modernization of buildings mostly consider one-time investments for the design decision. Also the uncertainty of boundary conditions is rarely taken into account. In this work, we propose a robust extension of a mixed-integer linear program that determines modernization schedules considering multiple points in time for the design decision. An initially conducted sensitivity analysis of the original model reveals high influences of user behavior, emission factors and economic parameters on the objectives and design decisions. By applying the method to a typical building, it is shown that robust differ from nominal solutions. The shown investigation of different degrees of robustness should facilitate the decision for a modernization path in the future.