Urban Sprawl in Poland (2016-2021): Drivers, Wildcards, and Spatial Externalities

The COVID-19 lockdown in 2020-2021 and the refugee crisis in 2021-2022 were two new and unexpected social and political events in Poland in recent years. These "wildcards" will certainly have major effects on individuals and cities, both directly and indirectly, through the influence of "externalities." The paper examines trends in the spatial development of Polish cities during the last five years (2016-2021), focusing on residential suburbanization and urban sprawl. The study aims to reveal the elements that determine the spatial scale of suburbanization, as well as "wildcards" that may have an indirect impact on the process but are difficult to quantify and include in spatial analysis. The use of location quotient (LQ) metrics, as well as a subset of the Global Human Settlement Layer in the spatial analysis allow for comparisons of locations with intensified urbanization throughout different periods, serving a task that is comparable to feature standardization from a time and space viewpoint. The analysis provides evidence of growing suburbanization surrounding major Polish cities from 2016 to 2021, while also exposing distinct elements of spatial development during a period that was marked by social and political stress (2021).