Degradation of South American biomes: What to expect for the future?

South America, a complex geographical area formed by physical, biological, and climatic diversity and distributed over several biomes, is home to the greatest biodiversity on the planet. Climate change is a threat at the continental scale, putting future generations at risk. Studying the biomes of South America is a valid approach to reducing the economic, social and cultural impacts of each region. This study used 18 years of numerous meteorological, biophysical and fire variables, aiming to understand the vegetation dynamics of the World Wide Fund for Nature biomes in the past, present and future (2021-2040) as a potential tool for land and resource management natures of South America. Our results indicate an increase in air temperature mainly in tropical regions, which will accelerate the physical processes of evaporation and transpiration in vegetation, in addition to increasing the probability of mega-fires during the dry season in these regions. Among the ten biomes in South America, savannas, tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests showed the greatest decrease in vegetation, as simulated by future modeling. Our results simulated by ARIMA modeling and data simulated by the CanESM5 climate model warn of the loss of biodiversity in South America. If public policies are not implemented in the short term, the loss of vegetation and human lives will be inevitable in these regions.