Survival rates of two nesting aggregations of diamondback terrapins at neighboring sites in New York City

The diamondback terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin) is a charismatic and long-lived species of the United States eastern coast, and the only North American turtle that exclusively inhabits coastal brackish waters. Many terrapin populations are declining, and these declines have been largely linked to human activities; however, few studies have documented human and natural factors affecting terrapin population demography. Jamaica Bay, an urban estuary located in southern New York City, USA, is home to 2 nesting aggregations of terrapins, located at Ruler's Bar Hassock (RBH) and John F. Kennedy Airport (JFK). We analyzed mark-recapture data for RBH from 2003-2018 and JFK from 2011-2018 to estimate annual survivorship of female diamondback terrapins and test the effects of 3 factors (a hurricane, water quality represented by nitrogen concentration, and injuries) on survival. The initial estimated annual survival was high (0.93) at RBH but declined to 0.89, while survival remained constant at JFK (0.92). Models examining the effect of Hurricane Sandy (2012) indicated a significant decline in survival in the 2 years following the hurricane in the RBH nesting aggregation but no change at JFK. Water quality did not influence trends in either aggregation, but the presence of major injuries (caused by boat collisions, predators, and the hurricane) significantly reduced annual survival at RBH. We propose increasing terrapin survivorship through mitigation of boat traffic, reducing populations of northern raccoons (Procyon lotor) to reduce injury to female terrapins and decrease egg and hatchling mortality, and increased law enforcement to reduce on-going poaching and capture as illegal by-catch.