Assessment of risks to habitat connectivity through the stepping-stone theory: A case study from Shenzhen, China

With the acceleration of urbanization, construction land is gradually expanding, leading to a loss of ecological land. This is increasing the risk of connectivity loss between important natural habitats. In this study, potential ecological corridors and stepping stones under ecological security patterns with different connectivity levels were identified according to the important habitats and resistance surfaces. We analyzed the development potential, vulnerability, and connectivity loss of a fragmented landscape using a support vector machine (SVM), a circuit theory model, and the "exposure-vulnerability-potential loss" framework. Four types of stepping stones that require protection were defined according to the risk structure and level. The results showed that there are 40 important habitats and 50 potential ecological corridors in the ecological security pattern. The SVM results indicated that the possibility of patch development is most sensitive to protection status (-0.923), followed by the slope (-0.770), and distance from the city (-0.210) and roads (-0.147). Additionally, the impact of railways (0.056) and night-time light (0.092) was limited. Elevation (0.267) had a positive effect on development. With an increased security level, the proportion of middle- and high-risk stepping stones gradually decreased, which means that the risk of connectivity loss under urban development can be reduced by creating a security pattern with a higher level and including more stepping-stone patches. Connectivity loss risk management can provide a reference for ecological control line revision and land use planning.