Prediction of China's copper material flows under carbon emissions projections for the shared socioeconomic pathways

•Conducting a life cycle assessment and material flow analysis to quantify the overall carbon footprint of copper production.•Analyzing the prospect of China's domestic copper production and utilization under the constraint of carbon budgets in shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios (SSP1–SSP5).•Indicating the potential of secondary material substituting primary material through the proportion change of primary and secondary produced refined copper.•Exploring the impact of copper stocks and intensity on economic performance.•Proposing policy recommendations for copper utilization, recovery, and carbon reduction in China.