The Risk of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Influence on the Business Insurance Market in the Medium- and Long-Term Horizon

The aim of this article is to identify the risk and the likelihood of potential consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on the business insurance market in the medium- and long-term horizon. The first section of this elaboration presents the theoretical approach connected with the nature of the pandemic. The second section outlines the presentation of the COVID-19 measurement rules and the third describes the potential effects of COVID-19 on the insurance market. Contrary to other elaborations on this topic which have appeared so far (these are mostly reports describing the financial market in short- and long-term horizons), here, the authors present the medium-term horizon as well. The possible consequences of COVID-19 are outlined both in relation to the insurance company client, e.g., change in the amount of the insurance premium under the insurance agreement, as well as in relation to the insurer, e.g., appearance of innovative and competitive offers (Trott's concept Special attention has been paid to the way in which the insurer's strategy (scenario analysis) may be used to build resilience to other crises as well as to the planning of emergency solutions. Actual events confirm the hypothesis that changes in the business insurance market dominated the losses in the aftermath of the pandemic.