Optimal imaging criteria and modality to determine Milan criteria for the prediction of post-transplant HCC recurrence after locoregional treatment

Objectives We aimed to investigate the optimal radiologic method to determine Milan criteria (MC) for the prediction of recurrence in patients who underwent locoregional treatment (LRT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and subsequent liver transplantation (LT). Methods This retrospective study included 121 HCC patients who underwent LRT and had both liver dynamic CT and MRI. They were classified with MC using four cross combinations of two imaging modalities (CT and MRI) and two diagnostic criteria (modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors [mRECIST] and Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System treatment response algorithm [LI-RADS TRA]). Competing risk regression was performed to analyze the time to recurrence after LT. The predictive abilities of the four methods for recurrence were evaluated using the time-dependent area under the curve (AUC). Results Competing risk regression analyses found that beyond MC determined by MRI with mRECIST was independently associated with recurrence (hazard ratio, 6.926; p = 0.001). With mRECIST, MRI showed significantly higher AUCs than CT at 3 years and 5 years after LT (0.597 vs. 0.756, p = 0.012 at 3 years; and 0.588 vs. 0.733, p = 0.024 at 5 years). Using the pathologic reference standard, MRI with LI-RADS TRA showed higher sensitivity (61.5%) than CT with LI-RADS TRA (30.8%, p < 0.001) or MRI with mRECIST (38.5%, p < 0.001). Conclusions MRI with mRECIST was the optimal radiologic method to determine MC for the prediction of post-LT recurrence in HCC patients with prior LRT. Key Points • MRI with modified RECIST (mRECIST) is the optimal preoperative method to determine Milan criteria for the prediction of post-transplant HCC recurrence in patients with prior locoregional treatment. • With mRECIST, MRI was better than CT for the prediction of post-transplant recurrence.