Article Heat source and application-dependent levelized cost of decarbonized heat

Cost-effective decarbonization of heat, the dominant end-use of en-ergy globally, is a grand scientific and technological challenge. Despite its importance, a technoeconomic framework to compara-tively evaluate heat sources has not received the same attention as the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Here, we develop a gener-alizable framework for calculating the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) for arbitrary heat sources and heating applications while accounting for carbon mitigation. We demonstrate the framework through case studies that span seven heat sources and four applications at temperatures ranging from 80 degrees C to 1,200 degrees C, using representative values from across the United States. We project costs toward 2050 and suggest several insights and research directions. Notably, natural gas is likely the cheapest heat source in the United States even after paying for carbon capture, and dramatic reductions in the cost and availability of renewable energy and energy storage are needed to enable cost-and emissions-favorable electrification.